5 replies to this topic

[Garcia]

Sunday: August 19, 2007: Some 45 million people were eligible to vote in the referendum today, but fewer than 70 per cent are expected to cast ballots even though voting is mandatory

Opinion polls and political analysts predict that the referendum will endorse the new charter but the potential margin of victory is unclear.

Opponents are hoping that enough people will vote to reject the new constitution - Thailand's 18th since 1932 when the absolute monarchy was ended - to raise real questions about the military's return to politics...

Analysts believe that the majority of Thai voters will approve the new constitution because they are weary of the political instability the country has suffered over the last two years, much of it concentrated around Thaksin, one of the most divisive figures in Thailand's recent political history."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=120967

[Hedda]

It may be significant that Surapong Suebwonglee, who is described by the press article as "a key member of the Thai Rak Thai group," made a charge this Sunday afternoon that "only 80 per cent of all ballots are delivered to polling units nationwide."

According to Surapong, "there will be an attempt to cheat the result of vote count by adding the rest of 20 per cent already marked in the "Yes" box after the voting is closed."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/08/19...cs_30045629.php

This claim may be a total fabrication, a baseless attempt to make the case for history that the vote was "fixed." It's the same sort of scenario recited by anti-Thaksin elements who claim his past election victories with TRT were tainted with fraud and vote-buying.

It's unfortunate that the junta could have prevented this kind of talk by inviting international observers to monitor the fairness of the referendum. They chose not to. That can only fuel speculation on the legitimacy of the results, especially if this turns out to be much closer than thought. Frankly, given the control that the coup sponsors have exercised over this entire matter, it will be astonishing if the result is anything but a resounding "YES" approval.

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[Sexpat]

Three exit polls released after the voting ended suggest that the new constitution will be approved by a margin of 60-70 % voting yes.

"The exit poll conducted by Rajabhat Suan Dusit University said 67.94% of 20,237 voters accept the draft charter while 32.06% do not. The exit poll carried out by Ramkhamhaeng University found that 60.19% of 17,346 voters accept it while 39.81% vote against it. The exit poll surveyed by Assumption University revealed that 70.7% of 5,246 voters accept the draft constitution while 29.3% do not."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=120976

[Gene]

A different picture is emerging on the Nation's website where the early actual returns show the constitution winning, but not by that 70-30 margin. In fact, it is losing substantially in the early count in Issan and barely winning in the North. It's doing the best in the South and Central regions, at least at this very early stage.

The results are coming in at:

http://202.60.199.51/en/?zone=0

[Hedda]

What's becoming clear in these early returns is that most provinces in Issan have remained solidly anti-coup and presumably pro-Thaksin in their loyalties. They have voted solidly "NO" against the constitution.

The South remains as solidly anti-Thaksin as ever and is probably still the only real Democrat Party stronghold in the country. It's voting overwhelmingly in favor of the new constitution.

The North looks bitterly divided with major pockets of Thaksin strength. It's too close to call, but the "NO" vote may actually prevail in both the North and Issan, which has got to have Mr. Thaksin's enemies alarmed.

My guess at this early stage is that you could put an overlay of the 2004 parliamentary election results in which TRT gained an outright majority, and it would bear a striking resemblance to this referendum vote, with the possible exception of Bangkok and the central region. This may be viewed by some political pros as a road map of where the elections projected for December are going.

No doubt, the junta's sponsors and everyone else of a political bent here are already quietly trying to project how Parliament may be configured after December's elections, based on this referendum vote. It's not easy to do, given the way this new constitution has tried to gerrymander the way MP's get elected.

What's clear is that TRT may be legally gone, but its ghost lingers on, especially in the North and Issan. No doubt, if these trends continue, Thaksin will be seen tomorrow with that old "they-stilll-love-me" look on his face.

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[Snowy]

Thai voters 'approve new charter'

Thailand's military coup leaders have won a referendum on a new constitution by a large margin, taking around 70% of Sunday's vote, exit polls suggest.
It was the first vote to be held since Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted by the army last year and replaced with Gen Surayud Chulanont.

About 60% of voters turned out, according to the election commission.

The charter is meant to replace the popular 1997 constitution, which the generals tore up after seizing power.

Critics say the new constitution is less democratic, as it proposes that the Senate should be only partly elected.

But the government says there were too many loopholes in the old charter that allowed Mr Thaksin to abuse power.

Its also says the new charter has many other clauses, like those recognising minority rights, which are more liberal than before.

The draft document limits future prime ministers to two terms in office and makes it easier to impeach them.

The military has promised elections to restore democratic government by the end of the year, on the basis of the new constitution.

More: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6953456.stm