2 replies to this topic

[Sexpat]

"The separatist insurgency in the deep South will not be stopped for at least another generation, outgoing army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin says.

Gen Sonthi was in the southern province of Pattani for a farewell ceremony held in his honour. The general will retire at the end of the month but will remain chairman of the Council for National Security (CNS).

A lot more time will be required to realise the goal of stamping out the insurgency which resumed with the weapons heist and killing of soldiers guarding them at an army camp in Narathiwat on Jan 4, 2004.

"It may be another generation," he said."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=121660

[Hedda]

The separatist insurgency in the deep South will not be stopped for at least another generation, outgoing army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin says

If that's the case, then the Thai authorities had better negotiate a quick political settlement of the problem along "local autonomy" lines.

The rebels have candidly admitted in some recent interviews that they see time as being on their side, as the continuing violence in affected provinces causes more and more ethnic cleansing, as Thai Buddhists, some shipped here under old government programs to make the provinces less Islamic, flee to re-settle in other more-Buddhist parts of Thailand.

If that process goes on for another generation, these provinces will become even more overwhelmingly muslim than they are now. There will then be no Buddhist population left that's large enough to exert any political influence on provincial affairs. Some form of local autonomy will then become the only political or millitary option for Bangkok, short of considering the dreaded concept of outright independence. Many strategists think its better to negotiate that settlement now than the next generation.

[NYCGuy]

I have some first-hand experience in the insurgency that raged in Aceh Province of Indonesia for over a generation and in which so many people were victims of abuse by both sides. It was finally settled with a grant of self-rule when it was obvious to the central government that the cause of Aceh independence was getting stronger among the local population, as time went by, even though they were all moslems.

The situation in Thailand, where the locals as moslems and the central government is buddhist, makes it even more probable that the local forces will only get stronger and more popular as military hostilites become more protracted and trust disappears.