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[Hedda]

Those of you who read the English language Thai papers regularly know that they are filled this week with assessments of the effects of the coup of September 19 on its first anniversary. It's interesting that most of the commentary seems to view the coup as a failure in having rid Thailand of Thaksin - but not "Thaksinism."

For sure, what the papers are saying this week is a far cry from the "roses in tank barrels" euphoria that the press seemed to lavish on the coup a year ago. Back then, the coup was seen by so many Thai analysts as an unfortunate necessity to rid the country of one man, with little regard for the damage it did to the entire infrastructure of the Thais' fledgling democracy.

Most of that attitude seems gone now, replaced with the sense that "coups don't accomplish much" and maybe do a lot more damage than good to the political system. There is the growing sense that the coup was a giant step backward in the democratic development of this country, having replaced one allegedly competent but corrupt Prime Minister and cabinet with a set of generals and bureaucrats who may be so incapable of running this country that's it's no longer profitable enough to support big time graft.

Most dramatic about the change in attitudes toward the coup is the outspoken public position taken by the PPP, where many TRT folks have found a new home, that they will seek to pardon all of the alleged Thaksin crooks and cronies if they get elected to the new Parliament. Saying that last year would probably have landed these guys in jail. Now, challenging the junta and coup may well be the key to getting elected, that's how much things may have changed in the last twelve months.

If the results of the recent constitutional referendum are any indicator, there'a a lot of resentment of the coup and nostalgia for the seemingly booming economy under Thaksin, sentiments that remain alive and well among many voters, not just the rural poor in the north and Issan, who see little future in the so-called "sufficiency economy."

The Democrats have foolishly allowed themselves to be seen by many as "pro-junta" by folding their tents and disappearing after the coup, seemingly more concerned about avoiding dissolution by the junta's hand-picked judges, than opposing the coup as illegal. When they resurfaced, having escaped dissolution with someone's blessing, they immediately endorsed the junta's new constitution, as if some quid pro quo was being delivered. To a cynic, it might well appear that the Democrats, unable to defeat Thaksin at the polls, saw the generals and their tanks as their wedge back into power.

If that perception of the Democrats' role in the coup is pervasive among the general electorate, and the disaffection with the coup seems genuine, there may be millions of Thai voters who approved the new Constitution, not because of anti-Thaksin sentiments, but simply to be rid of the generals, aging bureaucrats and economic malaise the coup seems to have sponsored.

Those same voters might have a big surprise for the Thai establishment when the election results are tabulated in December. They may not vote for PPP en masse, but they could elect former TRT party members or sympathizers, who now belong to the mix of other merged parties, and who could easily join with PPP in a coalition back to the future - and Thaksin.

One year ago, the coup was good and Thaksin bad. Today, the coup is not so good and Thaksin not so bad. Who knows who will be seen as good and bad a year from now.
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[Sexpat]

It's not just the English language newspapers that are saying that the bloom is off the coup rose. This is a translation of an editorial in Thai Rath evaluating the coup and its results:

"Today marks the first anniversary of the coup that removed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power. Public opinion is divided over what has transpired during the past 12 months.

If we use the interim government's performance as the yardstick, the past year has been disappointing. What has been gained is too little compared with the damage caused to the country's image and its democratic system.

The Assets Scrutiny Committee has wrapped up a number of cases against Mr Thaksin and his family members, but it has yet to bring the former prime minister home to face a court trial.

Regarding internal peace and stability, the Council for National Security has failed miserably. The New Year's Eve bombings and other acts of sabotage in Bangkok have been left unsolved, while violence in the deep South has continued unabated.

The CNS' talk about national reconciliation has proved to be empty. It's about time we accepted that there can be unity in diversity; that differing opinions are not necessarily divisive."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/19Sep2007_news18.php