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[Hedda]

This junta-appointed government seems intent on passing as many new laws as they can before an elected Parliament takes its seats in Bangkok.

One of the more potentially disturbing laws which has been popping up and down for the last six months in both the cabinet and Assembly are the curiously confusing changes to the operations of the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), a military organization which some civil libertarians here already see as a de facto shadow government to serve as a counter-weight to the elected one to come.

It's unclear to this writer, based on commentaries in the press, what changes this new ISOC law proposes to make in the existing scheme, nor why they are so important that they cannot wait for an elected Parliament to enact. What seems clear is that General Sonthi, who claimed to have no political ambitions when the coup was staged, and who now holds the position of a Deputy Prime Minister, is clearly calling the shots in the last months of this junta government, at least on all matters relating to national security.

Since the phrase "national security" seems to encompass everything in Thailand except the price of noodles, Sonthi has become the de facto strongman of this government in everything but title, pushing the Prime Minister into a secondary and rather perfunctory role.

Given that Sonthi is the same guy who claims to have organized the coup in the first place, the fact that the general is so anxious to get these ISOC changes passed before the new Parliament comes to town does not bode well for changes the new law is obviously intended to make, at least in the eyes of its sponsors. One gets the feeling, based on a reading of Thai history for the last 75 years, that some conservatice elements with decidedly pro-military sympathies may be trying to stack the deck in their favor, no matter who wins the next elections.
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[tomfin]

Yes, that seems correct.

But behind the scenes is the interesting stuff. And we do not know much.

But a consensus is building that PPP will win the election.

Negotiations between Thaksin and some powers will allow the PPP to rule for two years. Thaksin will stay in exile. After two years new elections will be called.

What happens then? Will Thaksin return? And the Thaksin relationship with the second generation of folks?

Do not touch that dial.